With Christmas just around the corner, traditionally the housing market quietens off as the festive season approaches, but this year has been different, with activity remaining strong. Nationally, the number of agreed sales is 26% ahead of this time in 2023, and in West Wales we’re seeing new sellers coming to the market and viewings ahead of the same time last year. Read on to discover the trends being reported by Rightmove and Zoopla and to find out more about our local housing market.

In Brief

Nationally the market has seen – 

• Average new seller asking prices dropped by 1.4% (-£5,366) to £366,592, a bigger fall than the usual 0.8% drop seen at this time of year – likely due to pre- and post-Budget jitters¹.
• Despite this, market activity remains strong – the number of sales being agreed is still 26% ahead of this time in 2023¹.
• The number of new sellers deciding to move and coming to market is 6% ahead of the same period a year ago¹.
• Rightmove’s 2025 forecast is that average new seller asking prices will rise by 4%, their highest prediction since 2021¹.
• The market remains price-sensitive, and seller competition is at its highest level for a decade¹.
• The housing market has returned to growth in 2024, supported by rising incomes and lower mortgage rates according to Zoopla².
• All regions and countries recorded positive year-on-year growth, with the UK average at +1.5%, up from -1.2% a year ago².
• UK house prices are projected to rise by 2.5% in 2025, with a 5% increase in the volume of housing transactions – predicted to reach 1.15m².
• Zoopla says the average house price in the UK is £267,200 as of October 2024².

In terms of the Welsh property market –

• The average house price in Wales is now £260,096, down 1.2% over the last month, but up 2.3% year on year¹.
• The average number of days for a Welsh property to be on the market before a sale is agreed has increased to 70¹.

¹Source – Rightmove

²Source – Zoopla

National Overview

Each month we bring you the latest insights on the national property market and how it is evolving, looking at two of the biggest names – Rightmove and Zoopla.  

Nationally Rightmove is reporting that the average price of property coming onto the market has dropped by 1.4% in November – down £5,366 to £366,592. According to them this is the second month in a row that new seller prices have fallen more than the norm – the usual drop witnessed at this time of year is 0.8%. 

They believe this is due to a combination of factors, including pre-Budget nerves and post-Budget disappointment, which has caused the larger than normal seasonal slowdown in the run up to Christmas. Despite this, the larger picture shows a stronger market than last year. Following the second interest rate cut from the Bank of England, Rightmove’s data showed early signs of a boost in buyer activity. 

While the market is expected to remain price-sensitive, with sellers competing with a decade-high number of sellers, it says that strong market metrics and optimism for lower mortgage rates in 2025 have led to them forecasting a 4% increase in average new seller asking prices next year.

Zoopla is also optimistic about 2024’s performance and the outlook for the coming year. It highlights the fact that the housing market returned to growth in 2024, with a better than expected performance – thanks to growing household incomes and lower mortgage rates. For 2025, they expect house prices and sales volumes to grow, despite Budget changes. 

Zoopla is reporting that the number of new sales being agreed is ending 2024 strongly, with buyers looking to lock in sales in order to beat the return of higher stamp duty rates that will apply in England from April 2025 (at present the Land Transaction Tax, which applies in Wales, is under review with no changes proposed at the time of writing this article). 

Sales agreed are currently 19% higher than this time last year, with buyer demand 25% higher. Zoopla says that more sales, combined with greater buyer confidence have fed into higher house price inflation – up 1.5% in the year to October 2024, compared to prices falling by 1.2% a year ago.

Finally, Zoopla highlights that the sales market is on track for 1.1m completions over 2024 – up 10% on 2023 figures. It says that the pipeline of sales is also 30% larger than this time last year, which will deliver a boost for the first half of 2025. 

Zoopla believes that the current momentum in sales will continue through next year, supported by rising incomes and changes in the way lenders assess affordability. They expect sales to grow to 1.15million in 2025 – 5% higher than in 2024 – and believe first-time buyers will remain the largest buying group, supporting housing chains.

Regional Insight from Cardigan Bay Properties

Thinking of buying or selling a property in West Wales? We can help. We know you’ll be keen to know about the local market here in our key regions of Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire. Here, one of our directors – Helen Worrall – outlines what’s been happening in the housing market over the last month. If you’d like to find out more please get in touch. 

The housing market in West Wales has remained steadfast over the last month, with many buyers still viewing properties. This continued interest comes during what is traditionally a slower time of the year – the run up to Christmas. Generally the industry sees viewings slow down at this time as people focus on the festive season, but this year is definitely different.

What’s also different this year is the number of houses for sale coming onto the market over the last month. Historically sellers have chosen to wait until what’s seen as the busy spring selling season, but this year we’re seeing a lot of owners choosing to put their properties on the market now – before Christmas.

What we’re seeing is that the traditional housing market trends are changing, with both seller and buyer activity now running throughout the year. This reflects the continued confidence in the West Wales market, with regions such as Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire performing particularly well – read more about this below.

Your Regional Insights

Here we give you an overview of the latest House Price Index results for our key regions – Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire. Please note, that each month these figures are two to three months behind due to the Land Registry taking longer to register new sales, so this report includes sales up to the end of September 2024.

To help you follow the trends for these regions, the graphs below show figures from July 2019 (pre-Covid pandemic) to September 2024.

CEREDIGION

September 2024 saw a surge in prices in Ceredigion. The average property price this month reached £253,656 – up from £242,847 in August 2024. All of the different property types experienced an increase – the average price of detached properties increased to £319,369 (up from £305,790 in August); semi-detached properties increased to £214,613 (up from £205,515 in August); terraced properties increased to £190,339 (up from £182,139) and flats increased to £123,740 (up from £118,548).

In terms of the yearly % change, overall property prices in Ceredigion grew by 0.4% over the year, however detached properties fell by -1.1%. All of the other property types experienced growth, with the strongest growth for terraced properties – up 2%.

For the monthly % change, September 2024’s figure grew to 4.5% – with all properties achieving a 4.4% or 4.5% increase this month.

View the full Ceredigion report.

PEMBROKESHIRE

Pembrokeshire has experienced another month of growth. The average property price in the region is now at £237,974, with all property types showing an increase. The yearly change is much lower than August’s 6.2% growth, but is still positive at 0.5%. Semi-detached properties experienced the biggest yearly increase at 2.2%, followed by terraced houses which grew by 1.5%. Both detached properties and flats fell slightly over the year – down 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.

In terms of the monthly change, Pembrokeshire property was up 0.4% in September – down on the previous month when it had increased by 4%. All properties, however, showed some small level of growth.

View the full Pembrokeshire report.

CARMARTHENSHIRE

The average property price in Carmarthenshire fell in September 2024 – down to £195,763 from £198,198 in August 2024. All property prices experienced the drop, with detached properties now at £259,112; semi-detached properties at £173,759; terraced properties at ​​£144,047; and flats at £115,454.

When looking at the yearly change, September 2024 saw a 2% drop across the board, with detached properties reporting the biggest yearly change – down 3.6%, followed by flats which were down 2.6%. Terraced properties held up best – down 0.9% over the year.

The monthly change figures also show a fall for Carmarthenshire – down 1.2% overall, with all property types reflecting this figure, except flats which experienced a drop of 1.4%.

View the full Carmarthenshire report.

CURRENT UK HOUSE PRICE INDEX

* As of September 2024, the average house price in the UK is £291,828, and the index stands at 153.1.Property prices have fallen by 0.3% compared to the previous month, and risen by 2.9% compared to the previous year.

*Details provided by the Land Registry. For more information on the House Price Index please CLICK HERE

Please note that the stats provided by the UK House Price Index are live and constantly evolving.