Mixed market in run-up to General Election

While the latest house price reports from Rightmove and Zoopla show the General Election is having little impact on buyer and seller decisions nationally, in West Wales we are seeing a quieter June than normal. Read on to find out more on both a national and regional basis. 

In Brief

Nationally the market has seen – 

• The average price of property coming to the market dropped by just £21 this month and is now at £375,110¹.
• Less expensive and more northerly regions are seeing stronger price growth this month, with five of the six cheapest regions reaching new price records¹.
• Since the election was announced, the number of sales being agreed stayed steady at 6% higher than a year ago¹.
• 95% of home movers said the election will not affect their moving plans¹.
• There’s been a 5% increase in buyer demand year on year¹.
• There’s been a 6% increase in agreed sales compared to this time last year¹.

• Zoopla reports 0% annual house price inflation in the UK for May 2024².
• UK house prices on track to be 1.5% higher over 2024².
• There’s an 8% ‘over-valuation’ of UK house prices (2024 Q1)² – but Zoopla says they will be ‘fairly valued’ by the end of the year due to rising incomes.
• 75% of the 1.1 million sales projected for this year are either complete or in the sales pipeline².

In terms of the Welsh property market –

• The average house price in Wales is now £266,033, up 0.3% over the last month, and up 0.7% year on year¹.
• The average number of days for a Welsh property to be on the market before a sale is agreed is now 71¹.

¹Source – Rightmove

²Source – Zoopla

Overview

Prices in June have followed their seasonal pattern from the last few years and remained fairly static through the month according to Rightmove, which reported a drop in the average selling price of just £21 to £375,110.

The top end of the market is more tentative than has been seen recently, with the strongest price growth coming from the lower end of the market. This is also reflected in regional pricing, with the strongest growth seen in northerly regions – five of the six cheapest regions reached new price records, while the East of England and London lagged behind say Rightmove.

Zoopla reports that house price inflation was flat at 0% in May 2024. However, it says that UK house prices are on track to end 2024 up 1.5%. It has also highlighted that UK houses are currently 8% overvalued, but will be ‘fairly valued’ by the end of the year due to rising incomes.

In terms of the impact of the General Election, in West Wales we have seen a calming down of the market as buyers and sellers wait to see the outcome. Nationally, Rightmove says that the majority of buyers and sellers haven’t changed their actions since the election was announced. The only sign of ‘election caution’, they say, has been a slight drop in the number of new sellers – particularly at the top end of the market. Over the last four weeks, the number of sales agreed stayed steady at 6% higher than a year ago, with buyer demand now 5% higher than last year.

Rightmove also notes that mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high – the average five-year fixed rate is now 5.04% compared to 4.94% in January this year – meaning many buyers will be monitoring the Bank of England for rate cuts, rather than pre-election housing market promises.

Zoopla has also noted that the annual rate of house price growth remains negative across southern England but is rising elsewhere. It also adds that 75% of the 1.1 million sales projected for this year are either complete or in the sales pipeline.

In summary, while the latest property reports state that the election is having little impact on the national property market, regionally in West Wales there has been a slowdown as people wait to see the outcome before acting. Nationally, prices over the last month have been fairly static, with some of the heat coming out of the top-end market and cheaper regions now seeing stronger price growth.

Insight from Cardigan Bay Properties

Each month we bring you the latest industry insights and comments on the property market to help aid your decisions when it comes to buying and selling. Both Rightmove and Zoopla give us a good overview of the national position, but we also carefully monitor our local market to ensure you have information about our key regions of Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire. 

Over the last month, we’ve seen interest in properties in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire, with Pembrokeshire in particular reporting strong price growth across all types of properties – you can read more in the House Price Index overview below. Carmarthenshire on the other hand has slowed down, with both detached houses and flats seeing the biggest drop in pricing. 

This appears to be the market simply adjusting, particularly with interest rates for many still high. The election has undoubtedly slowed the local market down as buyers and sellers choose to wait to monitor the outcome before deciding on their next steps. In addition, they are keeping an eye on the potential for Bank of England interest rate cuts, alongside the policies of the new Government.

Despite slower demand, in June we brought 13 new properties to the market (up from 10 in June 2023), with five new property sales agreed through the month. This follows on from a strong May 2024, which ended with eight property sales agreed. 

We are anticipating a surge in interest from buyers and sellers following the election results, when the market has more understanding of the future – both regionally and nationally.

Your Regional Insights

It’s generally been a positive month for most of West Wales, and below we give you an overview of the latest House Price Index results for our key regions – Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire. Please note, that each month these figures are two to three months behind due to the Land Registry taking longer to register new sales, so this report includes sales up to the end of April 2024.

To help you follow the trends for these regions, the graphs below show figures from July 2019 (pre-Covid pandemic) to April 2024.

CEREDIGION

April 2024 saw a slight increase in the average property price in Ceredigion. The average property price in the area is now £240,711, up from £239,697 at the end of March 2024. For specific property types, detached houses now average £304,379; semi-detached average £204,850; terraced houses £178,301; and flats £116,890. Across the different property types all have seen an increase except for detached houses, which saw a very slight drop.

The yearly percentage change for properties in Ceredigion has seen strong increases across the board. Overall in April 2024 there was a 4.1% increase, up from a 2.2% increase in March. The yearly percentage change for detached properties increased to 2.6%; semi-detached properties increased to 6%; terraced properties increased to 5.5% and flats increased to 3.8%. The average monthly change for the region was up 0.4%, following a 2% drop last month – with flats experiencing the largest monthly change, up 1.3% following a 2.1% drop in March. Detached properties are the only property type to see a monthly fall of 0.2%.

View the full Ceredigion report.

PEMBROKESHIRE

Pembrokeshire continues to prove popular with house buyers and this is reflected in the average house price, which is up to £235,400 in April 2024, from £226,471 in March 2024. This growth is being seen across all property types, with the average price of detached homes reaching £323,080 in April – up from £312,740 in March; for semi-detached properties the average price in April was £210,918 (up from £201,796 in March); for terraced properties it was £177,377 (up from £170,175); and for flats the average price reached £118,585 in April (up from £113,491 in March).

In terms of the yearly change, prices are up 4.4% overall year on year, with the biggest increases seen for semi-detached houses – up 6.3%, followed by terrace houses which are up 5.1%. In addition, the monthly percentage change saw an increase of 3.9% for April 2024 – this follows a 0.8% monthly increase in March, with semi-detached houses and flats showing the biggest monthly increase – their prices are both up 4.5%.

View the full Pembrokeshire report.

CARMARTHENSHIRE

It’s a slightly different picture in Carmarthenshire with all property types seeing a drop in the average property price in April 2024. Now the average property price in the region is £194,023 – down from £200,443 in March 2024.

The largest yearly percentage fall was for flats (down 6.8% in April 2024) and detached properties (down 6.6%). Semi-detached properties and terraced house prices also dropped – down 4.4% and 4.8% respectively.

When we compare the monthly price changes, April 2024 reported a drop of 3.2% across all property types – that compares to an increase of 1.3% in March 2024. The fall in prices was seen across all properties, with detached properties showing the biggest drop – down 3.8%.

View the full Carmarthenshire report.

CURRENT UK HOUSE PRICE INDEX

* As of April 2024, the average house price in the UK is £281,373, and the index stands at 147.6. Property prices have risen by 0.3% compared to the previous month, and risen by 1.1% compared to the previous year.

*Details provided by the Land Registry. For more information on the House Price Index please CLICK HERE

Please note that the stats provided by the UK House Price Index are live and constantly evolving.