The Bank of England interest rate cut at the start of August gave the housing market a late summer boost and is paving the way for a strong autumn. With our August sales up nearly 50% and viewings up 27% – compared to August 2023 – we’re seeing a renewed confidence in the market across West Wales, and nationally the figures seem to support this positivity.

In Brief

Nationally the market has seen – 

• Average new seller asking prices see a seasonal drop of 1.5% (-£5,708) this month to £367,785¹.
• August has seen a monthly decline in prices from July for the last 18 years, with this month’s fall in line with the long-term average¹.
• The first Bank of England rate cut for four years has led to an immediate upturn in buyer activity. The number of potential buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale has jumped from 11% up on the prior year across the month of July, to 19% up since the 1st of August compared to the same time a year ago¹.
• Rightmove raises its 2024 forecast from -1% to +1% due to positive market data and trends¹.
• Over the first 7 months of 2024, house prices have risen by 1.4%².
• All areas of market activity are up year-on-year – the long-awaited base rate cut has not had a major impact so far².
• 1 in 5 homes have had their asking price cut by 5% or more, an above-average level showing continued price sensitivity amongst buyers².
• It takes 28 days to sell a home with no asking price reduction, but 73 days if you overprice and then need to reduce by 5% or more².

In terms of the Welsh property market –

• The average house price in Wales is now £262,923, down 1% over the last month, but up 2.3% year on year¹.
• The average number of days for a Welsh property to be on the market before a sale is agreed has dropped to 69¹.

¹Source – Rightmove

²Source – Zoopla

Overview

According to Rightmove, the long-awaited interest rate cut by the Bank of England at the start of August produced a welcome late summer boost across buyer activity. Despite mortgage rates continuing to be at the higher end of the spectrum, this first cut has boosted confidence among many home movers. Rightmove says that the number of potential buyers contacting estate agents is 19% higher than in the same period a year ago.

It also highlights that the end of the summer holidays, combined with a more positive frame of mind in the market, bodes well for the autumn period. As a result, Rightmove has revised its price prediction for the year – they now expect new seller prices to rise by 1% over the whole of 2024, compared to their original prediction of a 1% fall in prices over the year, underlining a renewed confidence in the market.

Zoopla is reporting that the Bank of England base rate cut has not had any major impact on levels of buyer demand so far. It believes that the real reason buyer demand for homes is 20% higher than last year is because of a fall in demand over summer 2023, which occurred in response to the rise in mortgage rates. 

It adds that all key measures of sales market activity are higher than they were in 2023. This, it says, is supported predominantly by economic growth and rising consumer confidence. 

It says that demand for homes is a fifth higher than this time last year and new sales agreed are almost a quarter higher. This is supported by the drop in mortgage rates, which have fallen to an average of 4.5% for a five-year fixed rate at 75% loan-to-value.

Despite slightly differing insights from Rightmove and Zoopla, the base rate drop is hugely positive for the property market across the UK. We hope this will be the first of several cuts that will continue to improve confidence in the market. 

Regional Insight from Cardigan Bay Properties

Whether you’re buying or selling a property in West Wales, we’re here to help make the process easier and give you advice on the property market in this area. Every month we bring you the latest industry analysis on the property market and how it is evolving. 

As part of this we look at reports from the influential websites Rightmove and Zoopla to gain an accurate overview of the national property market, but we also carefully monitor our local market to ensure you have information about our key regions of Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire. 

With the return to school, we are finding that interest in properties is already increasing as people have more time to focus on their home search and view their favourite properties. 

We are also monitoring national developments – particularly news about potential further interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. The cut at the start of August was a good first step – August was a very busy month with our sales up nearly 50% and viewings up 27% compared to August 2023.  A further cut in interest rates will help mortgage rates fall further, giving first-time buyers more confidence to plan and make their move onto the property ladder.

Overall we expect the autumn to be significantly more active than last year, with more positivity in the market.

Your Regional Insights

Here we give you an overview of the latest House Price Index results for our key regions – Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire. Please note, that each month these figures are two to three months behind due to the Land Registry taking longer to register new sales, so this report includes sales up to the end of June 2024.

To help you follow the trends for these regions, the graphs below show figures from July 2019 (pre-Covid pandemic) to June 2024.

CEREDIGION

June 2024 saw a small increase in the average property price in Ceredigion – up from £248,614 in May 2024 to £248,881 in June. Interestingly it is the terraced houses and flats that have seen the strongest growth. Terraced houses have increased from £184,538 in May to £185,925 in June, while flats have increased from £120,371 in May to £121,260 in June. 

In terms of the yearly percentage change, the June figure was up 3.10% – compared to May which was up 5.3%, showing a slowing of price growth. It is the semi-detached and terraced houses that have seen the biggest yearly percentage growth – up 4.9% and 4.7% respectively in June.

The monthly percentage change is smaller – up just 0.1% in June, compared to a 4% increase in May 2024. Again, it is the terraced houses and flats sectors that have seen the biggest monthly change – up 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.

View the full Ceredigion report.

PEMBROKESHIRE

After a strong May, June 2024 saw the average property price in Pembrokeshire drop to £230,164 – down from £237,606 in May. Detached houses fell from £326,324 in May to £315,134 in June; semi-detached houses fell from £212,275 in May to £205,906 in June; terraced houses fell from £179,274 in May to £174,305 in June; and flats fell from £119,835 in May to £115,860 in June.

The yearly percentage change figures show that properties in Pembrokeshire increased by 4.7% in June – that follows a 6.5% increase in May 2024. All of the different property sectors saw a drop in the yearly percentage change in June, compared to May.

The monthly percentage change for Pembrokeshire dropped by 3.1% in June 2024, with the biggest falls for detached properties (down 3.4%) and flats (down 3.3%).

View the full Pembrokeshire report.

CARMARTHENSHIRE

The average house price in Carmarthenshire also fell in June – down to £199,323 from £201,123 in May 2024. All property types fell, with detached houses dropping from £268,771 in May to £265,290; semi-detached houses dropping from £178,446 to £176,944; terraced houses falling from £146,230 to £145,569; and flats dropped from £118,518 to £117,204.

In terms of the annual percentage change for the region, overall this was down 1.6%, with the biggest drops for flats – down 4% – and detached houses – down 3%. Semi-detached properties saw the smallest fall at -0.6%.

The monthly percentage change also fell – with June 2024 down 0.9%. This follows a 0.9% increase in May 2024. Again, the drop affected all property types, with the largest drops for detached properties (down 1.3%) and flats (down 1.1%).

View the full Carmarthenshire report.

CURRENT UK HOUSE PRICE INDEX

* As of June 2024, the average house price in the UK is £287,924, and the index stands at 151.0. Property prices have risen by 0.5% compared to the previous month, and risen by 2.7% compared to the previous year.

*Details provided by the Land Registry. For more information on the House Price Index please CLICK HERE

Please note that the stats provided by the UK House Price Index are live and constantly evolving.